$1,132 on Paper, $771 at Monday's Close

AI Money: Why Are the Big Checks Shrinking?

Marvell's $1,132 Offer Is Worth Far Less Now

Marvell Technology (MRVL) agreed Sunday to buy Lumentum (LITE) in an all-stock deal valued at $115 billion, or about $1,132 a share. Here's the catch. Each Lumentum share turns into 4.5 Marvell shares, so the payout floats with Marvell's stock. Marvell has fallen about 32% since Oct. 28, the day the headline price was measured. At Monday's early-afternoon prices, the offer was worth about $792. By the close, it was about $771. That's roughly 16% below where Lumentum traded before talks leaked.

Oracle Raised $20 Billion. The Price Tag Was Steep.

Oracle (ORCL) pledged last week to cap new fundraising at $20 billion through fiscal 2030. Late Monday, it raised all of it. It sold 86.2 million shares at $116, 19.7% below its Oct. 28 close. The lower price meant 12.6% more shares than its draft offering papers showed. The other $10 billion came as bonds paying 7% to 8.65%. That's about $777 million a year in new interest. The shares fell 8.85% on Monday and were indicated near $119 early Tuesday.

Palantir's Sales Nearly Doubled. Its New Deals Didn't.

Palantir (PLTR) grew revenue 96% to $2.313 billion and raised its 2026 forecast to about $8.53 billion. But the value of new contracts it signed rose just 6%. Its backlog from U.S. companies grew only 4% from the prior quarter. In plain terms, Palantir is turning orders into sales faster than it's adding new orders.

Demand showed up. The exchange rate didn't.

Bets: Who Gets Paid When the Headlines Flip?

Oil Priced a Deal. Then Came the Strike Report.

U.S. crude settled at $96.46 on Monday, down 7.4%, after Iran's president said its Supreme Leader had granted the government "certain authorities" for peace talks. Then, at 7:39 p.m. Eastern, the Wall Street Journal reported a U.S. strike on Iran's Qeshm Island. It called this the latest in a series of small, secret strikes. U.S. officials described it as limited and defensive. By early Tuesday, crude was near $98. That won back only about a fifth of Monday's drop.

One Strike Settled Six Bets

Prediction markets moved far faster. Polymarket's contracts on the ceasefire lasting through Nov. 8 and Nov. 15 traded near 57 and 54 cents around the report. Within 10 minutes, they were at 16.5 and 12 cents. About three hours later, six contracts had resolved "No." The rule was exact: a U.S. strike that directly hits Iranian land. Qeshm is Iranian land. Now two expired contracts, Oct. 31 and Nov. 2, are under dispute. The question is whether any strike hit Iranian land before those deadlines.

Tonight's Senate Bet Comes With Fine Print

Polymarket and Kalshi both price Democratic control of the Senate at about 76 cents. The payout rules differ. Kalshi can settle early once media outlets agree on a winner. If not, it waits until Feb. 1, 2027, and checks the party of the Senate's president pro tempore. Polymarket pays on which party wins a majority of seats. A close race could tie up money for weeks, and the order book has thinned by more than half since Monday.

Oil got a shrug. The bets got a verdict.

Exits: Can You Actually Get Your Money Out?

A Private Equity Fund Paid Out a Third

Partners Group's U.S. private equity fund lets wealthy investors cash out a slice each quarter. In the third quarter, they asked for $2.21 billion and got $728.4 million, about a third. That's the fund's 5% cap, shared out pro rata among sellers. Requests jumped to about 15% of assets, from about 6% the quarter before. The fund didn't freeze. But sellers who weren't filled have to ask again, and the next window closes Nov. 27.

One Bitcoin Fund Did All the Selling

U.S. bitcoin funds lost a net $398.6 million on Monday. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust lost $405.3 million by itself, its biggest day out since June. Without it, the group would have taken in money. Two days have pulled about $1.04 billion, roughly erasing this year's net inflows, by CoinDesk's math. That's still only about 1% of the $98.1 billion they hold. Flows don't show who sold. One fund this lopsided points to a few big holders, not a crowd.

Binance Opened the Next Door

Binance began reopening withdrawals for dozens more tokens late Monday, including several dollar stablecoins. It's rolling out chain by chain. Net withdrawals slowed to about $2.57 billion Monday, from about $6.1 billion Sunday, per DefiLlama. Blockchain firm Elliptic estimates about $2.85 billion of the stolen $6.3 billion is frozen or seized.

Same nerves. Different doors.